Financial Update

TSX rally continues! US Fed cuts rates! Loonie leaps skyward!

· TSX +349.93pts (Reuters) as energy and materials issues rose on stronger commodity prices, with gains supported by the U.S. Federal Reserve's half-point interest rate cut.
· Dow -74.16pts gains were lost in the closing moments after Fed noted the pace of economic activity had slowed since its last meeting
· Dollar +3.67c to $81.63US. one of its biggest single-day jumps in history as the value of the U.S. greenback eroded against other major currencies including the euro and British pound. At one point the loonie was up $4.50
· Oil +$4.77to $67.50US per barrel. "With the US rate decrease it affects the (U.S.) dollar. If the dollar goes down, oil goes up -- they are inversely related -- so that has been helping to push the market up in Toronto," Ibel said
· Gold +$13.50 to $752.80US per ounce

RBC survey finds home buying intentions hold steady (specific regional info at the bottom) TORONTO, Oct. 29 /CNW/ - A new RBC study conducted during the marketturmoil in October finds overall intentions to purchase a home in the next twoyears remain steady at 22 per cent and have not changed since January 2008. Aswell, renovation intentions are slightly higher than last year - up fourpercentage points as 70 per cent of respondents are planning to renovate ormake home improvements in the next two years.

"Despite recent economic events, we've noted that Canadians still believea home is a good investment and many are continuing with their homeimprovement plans," remarked Catherine Adams, RBC Royal Bank's vice-president,Home Equity Financing.

According to RBC's 5th Annual Renovation Survey, given the choice, mostCanadian homeowners would opt for hammers and paint brushes, rather thanpacking tape and cardboard boxes. Seventy five per cent of Canadian homeownerssay that, if their home needed major renovations, they would rather renovate,than sell and move.

While the majority of Canadians (55 per cent) would definitely continueto renovate even if housing prices were to drop, they appear to be a littlemore hesitant than they were in 2007 (66 per cent). Many Canadians seem to bechoosing to renovate rather than relocate, noted Adams.

Renovation Budgets Most Canadians planning renovations will spend less than $50,000 andindicate they plan to spend $10,801 on average - up about 10 per cent from$9,850 in 2007. The RBC survey also showed that 63 per cent of homeowners have renovatedin the past two years and more are establishing a realistic reno budget.Seven-in-ten had a budget and half (53 per cent) stuck to it. Even thoserenovators that did go over budget have pulled back significantly. The averagebudget excess was 24 per cent in 2008 compared to 74 per cent overage in 2007and 88 per cent in 2006.

To finance their reno expenditures, Canadians will be less likely to tapinto cash or savings than they have in the past (47 per cent in 2008,51 per cent in 2007 and 69 per cent in 2004). Only 28 per cent would considerusing the equity in their home, down from 41 per cent who said they wouldconsider it in 2007. More men (32 per cent) than women (24 per cent) wouldconsider borrowing against home equity for their renovation - the lowest costof all the borrowing options.

"When people are looking for a mortgage they're usually very costsensitive, and they seek advice about the best possible rate and productcombination. We don't always see those same savvy cost comparisons for homerenovations, even though many involve sizable expenses," added Adams.

When it comes to top mistakes or renovation disasters, Canadians who havecompleted a renovation in the past two years, blame going over budget (26 percent); using the wrong contractor or tradespeople (14 per cent); choosing thewrong products (12 per cent) and doing it myself (11 per cent).

Renovations by the Numbers

Intentions among Regions Average Spend
BC 69% (down from 70%) $10,064
Alberta 74% (up from 69%) $12,422
Sask/Man 71% (down from 75%) $ 9,742
Ontario 71% (up from 66%) $12,305
Quebec 67% (up from 64%) $ 8,463
Atlantic Canada 73% (up from 67%) $10,042


Renovate or Sell/Move
Region Renovate Sell
BC 75% 19%
Alberta 71% 23%
Sask/Man 75% 17%
Ontario 75% 19%
Quebec 74% 17%
Atlantic Canada 78% 15%


By Age:
- 18 to 34 - 70 per cent would renovate instead of sell (down from 75 per cent)
- 35 to 54 - 78 per cent would renovate, not sell (up from 75 per cent)
- 55 and above - 76 per cent would opt for renovations (up from 58 per cent)

These are some of the findings of two RBC polls conducted by Ipsos Reid.The online surveys are based on nationally balanced samples and were weightedaccording to 2006 Census Data.

The poll conducted between October 9 and 13 included 1,474 Canadians. Arandom, representative sample of this size would yield results consideredaccurate to within +/-2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what theywould have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled.

The second poll conducted between August 13 and 18, 2008 dealing withrenovation intentions included 3,733 Canadian homeowners. A random,representative sample of this size, would yield results considered accurate towithin +/-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would havebeen had the entire adult Canadian population been polled.

For full tabular results, please see the Ipsos Reid website atwww.ipsos.ca.

Downloadable graphics also available at www.rbc.com/newsroom.

Home renovation intentions trend upward in Ontario, finds RBC survey

TORONTO, Oct. 29 /CNW/ - Ontario homeowners are showing more enthusiasmfor home renovations, according to a new RBC survey. The poll, conducted byIpsos Reid, found that 71 per cent of Ontarians surveyed plan to renovatewithin the next two years, just above the national average of 70 per cent andup five percentage points from 2007. Of those polled, 75 per cent said that iftheir homes were in need of major renovations, they would still rather assumethe work themselves, than sell and move.

"Despite the current economic uncertainty, we can expect to see amoderate increase in renovation activity in Ontario over the next coupleyears," says Catherine Adams, vice-president, Home Equity Financing. "Forthose making renovation plans, it's important to carefully consider all thepotential costs involved, obtain quotes, look for the best financing optionsand set a realistic budget that you'll be able to stick to."

Among homeowners who have completed renovation projects in the last twoyears, the poll found that 67 per cent of respondents in Ontario had a budgetfor their renovations. Of those, 46 per cent said they went over budget, by anaverage of 25 per cent. In fact, Ontarians were more likely than homeowners inother regions to say going over budget was their biggest renovation mistake ordisaster (28 per cent). Despite budget overages, the majority of Ontarians(72 per cent) are likely to pay for most or all of their renovations with cashor savings.

The average amount that Ontario homeowners plan to spend on theirrenovations is also up over last year from $10,489 to $12,306 - well above thenational average of $10,853 and just shy of Alberta ($12,420) which has thelargest average budget spend in the country.

The most popular choices for renovations and home improvements amongOntarians include new floors (42 per cent), bathrooms (40 per cent), andexterior landscaping (36 per cent). Kitchen counter tops (30 per cent) anddecks and patios (26 per cent) were also among the most likely makeoverchoices.

Eco-friendly renovations

More than three-quarters of Ontario homeowners (78 per cent) would choosean environmentally-friendly approach if it would save money in the long run,even if it costs more now. Of those polled, 56 per cent would consider "livingoff the grid" - living in a self sufficient manner without reliance on publicutilities, while 67 per cent of Ontario homeowners would consider becoming'net zero' household, enabling their homes to produce at least as much energyas they use. The majority of Ontarians (78 per cent) believe that 'green'improvements would increase the value of their home.

Intentions among Regions Average Spend
Ontario 71% $12,306
BC 69% $10,064
Alberta 74% $12,422
Sask/Man 71% $ 9,743
Quebec 67% $ 8,463
Atlantic Canada 73% $10,042

Renovate or Sell/Move
Region Renovate Sell
Ontario 75% 19%
BC 75% 19%
Alberta 71% 23%
Sask/Man 75% 17%
Quebec 74% 17%
Atlantic Canada 78% 15%


These are some of the findings of an RBC poll conducted by Ipsos Reidbetween August 13 and August 18, 2008. The online survey is based on arandomly selected representative sample of 3,733 adult Canadian homeowners,including 1,423 Ontario residents. With a representative sample of this sizefor Ontario, the results are considered accurate to within 2.6 percentagepoints, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adultpopulation of Ontario been polled. These data were statistically weighted toensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of theactual Canadian population according to the 2006 census data.

Financial Update

North American stocks rally on bargain hunting

· TSX +614.29pts as investors flocked to commodity and financial stocks that were beaten down in Monday's steep fall, encouraged by strong earnings from several companies and signs that the frozen credit markets are starting to thaw (Reuters)
· Dow +889.35pts up more than 10%, on bargain-hunting and hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks will cut rates further.
· Dollar +.37c to $77.96US. The rally in the Canadian dollar was aided largely by a rally in global stock markets and a slightly improved overall market sentiment. But the gain was held in check as investors continued to liquidate riskier assets in favor of the greenback, a practice that has weighed on the Canadian currency in recent weeks.
· Oil -$.49to $62.73US per barrel. as concerns about faltering demand offset OPEC comments suggesting the producer group could throttle back output again to support prices.(FP)
· Gold $-2.40 to $739.30US per ounce

IMF, EU agree to $25.1-billion package for Hungary ELIZABETH PIPER Reuters-Report on Business — The United States is expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday, a measure Japan, the European Central Bank and Britain are forecast to follow by the end of next week to bolster economies facing recession.

While dispensing with a repeat of the coordinated cuts made earlier this month, authorities fear the worst financial crisis in 80 years will usher in a long recession and are looking to individual rate reductions to soften the blow.

Hungary became the latest country to seek finance from global lenders, agreeing a rescue package worth $25.1-billion (U.S.) to shore up its currency and markets. The International Monetary Fund said if the crisis was prolonged and many more countries asked for help, it could need more money.

New rule on funds relieves pinched insurers

TARA PERKINS Globe and Mail Update

Canadian regulators have fast-tracked new rules that will give insurers a reprieve from the beating they've taken as a result of falling stock markets.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, which regulates banks and insurers, changed the rules yesterday that dictate how much money insurers must put aside for their segregated funds businesses.

Falling stock markets have forced insurers to sock away more capital now for payments they'll have to make to customers years down the road, putting added pressure on firms such as Manulife Financial Corp. The revised rules give companies more time to put aside funds for far-off obligations.

The capital requirements for segregated funds are now less onerous if the payments are more than five years away, which should reduce the capital requirements for all of the insurers in the fourth quarter of this year, said Genuity Capital Markets analyst Mario Mendonca, adding that Manulife will be the biggest winner.

Insurers said they welcome the changes.

They believe the revised rules more accurately reflect the actual risk with respect to the future payments that they have promised customers.

Manulife shares, which had fallen $17.83 from the start of the month to $21.17 on Monday, gained 10.96 per cent or $2.32 to close at $23.49 on the Toronto Stock Exchange yesterday after The Globe and Mail reported that OSFI was considering changes to the rules. Shares of Sun Life gained 14.34 per cent to close at $30.06 on what was generally a strong day on the market.

The revisions are a move in the opposite direction to regulators' general desire for financial institutions to preserve as much capital as possible in this economic environment.

One week ago, OSFI issued an advisory saying it wants banks and insurers to consult the regulator before any share buybacks. “OSFI is of the view that the current environment calls for increased conservatism in capital management,” it said at the time.

But insurers believe that the old capital rules for their segregated funds businesses were too strict. Manulife would likely have been required to put aside more than $2-billion in the fourth quarter for payments that mostly come due between seven and 30 years from now.

Segregated funds are products where insurers invest customers' money in a number of funds, and promise them regular payouts at some point in the future. When tumbling stock markets decrease the value of the funds, insurers are forced to put aside more capital to meet their future obligations. If markets rise, they can reverse that.

OSFI's revisions were released late yesterday afternoon and the exact impact on insurers' capital requirements this quarter is not clear.

In a letter to the industry, the regulator said it had planned to update the rules by 2011, but that market developments highlighted the need to move quickly.

When the rules were first developed, segregated fund guarantee contracts generally had a term of 10 years or less. Insurers have been pushing into the retirement planning market, and the contracts now largely have terms of 30 years, or even indefinite terms to the end of the customer's life.

OSFI said the old rules might not have sufficiently distinguished between the lower level of capital that should be required to support distant payment obligations and the higher level for payments that are closer to coming due. In addition, it said the rules made capital requirements “susceptible to dramatic swings that may not reflect changes in risk.”

The changes attempt to reduce the volatility in the requirements.

Financial Update

Market chaos “beyond volatile” Carl Weinberg, Chief Economist High Frequency Economics
· TSX -37.26pts (Reuters) A see-saw session saw the main index slump to hit a 4-year low and then bounce back in a late-session rebound that could lead to a strong opening on Monday.
· Dow -312.30pts if ever a 300 pt loss was a good thing, it was Friday as emergency trading halts were considered, as in Russia, where authorities closed the stock exchanges until Tuesday
· Dollar -1.08c to $78.56US.
· Oil -$3.69 to $64.15US per barrel. Canada's currency is headed for its worst monthly fall since at least 1950 (FP)
· Gold +15.80 to $729.10US per ounce