U.S. foreclosures jump 57%
· TSX climbed higher + 55.57
· Dow continues downward-23.36
· Dollar bounced up +.37c to $ $98.08US
· Oil +1.62 to $111.76 US per barrel . Oil rose on Monday to a record close, bolstered by the
weaker dollar and supply disruptions ahead of the U.S. summer gasoline season.
· Gold +1.80US to $925.40US
Bond Rates: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/bonds.html
Businesses foresee slower growth in sales and investment: Bank of Canada
Mon Apr 14, 2:39 PMBy Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - The impact of tight money and the U.S. economic malaise is beginning to sap the confidence of Canadian businesses, says a new survey from the Bank of Canada.
While far from panicking over the worsening economic conditions, the 100 businesses polled in February and March suggested Canada's corporate world sees an easing trend developing in what they produce, sell and invest for the next 12 months.
"The increased pessimism about sales is unsurprising, given the heightened discussion of a possible U.S. recession that was evident over the survey period," said Rishi Sondhi, an economist with the Royal Bank.
The central bank survey released Monday dovetails with a Conference Board poll of chief executives in the United States showing American business confidence at the lowest level since late 2000, and firms saying they are scaling back on hiring.
The Bank of Canada survey found a growing number of businesses reporting that financing investment and expansion is becoming more difficult as a result of the global credit crunch, the third straight quarter that firms have reported more stringent credit.
"Reports of tighter credit conditions were widespread across sectors and regions, with most firms attributing the tightening to a market-wide repricing of risk," the central bank said Monday.
Forty-one per cent of the firms said credit conditions were tighter in the past quarter, against 17 per cent saying they were looser.
This was likely reflected in muted business investment plans, with 28 per cent of firms saying they expected to increase spending on new machinery and equipment in the next 12 months, while 27 per cent expected to spend less.
"Among firms planning to invest less, most of whom are based in Central and Eastern Canada, the most common reason cited was significant investment spending over the past year, followed by a desire to preserve cash given uncertainty about the economic outlook," the bank said.
As well, 38 per cent expect sales growth to slow this year, as opposed to 36 per cent that forecast their sales will increase at a faster pace. This is the first time a plurality of Canadian businesses have predicted slower sales growth in the bank survey since the fourth quarter of 2001, during the last U.S. recession.
And after several surveys showing demand in the economy was outpacing companies' ability to produce, the proportion of firms reporting capacity constraints fell from 60 per cent to 44 per cent, while the number of firms reporting labour shortages slipped to 30 per cent.
BMO economist Michael Gregory said the report shows tight credit conditions are plaguing the economy and the Bank of Canada will likely take action on April 22 by cutting rates another half-point.
However, RBC's Sondhi noted that firms were expecting their own output prices to increase at a faster pace over the next 12 months and that some firms expected to pass through higher input prices.
The companies said higher oil and food prices, along with the rising costs of imports from China, will contribute to increased production costs. As well, more firms believe Canada's inflation rate will exceed three per cent over the next two years.
But Sondhi agreed that the Bank of Canada appears more focused on the slowing economy than on inflationary risks, and predicted a 75-basis-point cut to the overnight rate to 2.75 per cent by midyear.
Published: Tuesday, April 15, 2008
U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 57% and bank repossessions more than doubled in March from a year earlier as adjustable mortgages increased and more owners gave up their homes to lenders.
More than 234,000 properties were in some stage of foreclosure, or one in every 538 U.S. households, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data, said today in a statement. Nevada, California and Florida had the highest foreclosure rates. Filings rose 5% from February.
About US$460-billion of adjustable-rate loans are scheduled to reset this year, according to New York-based analysts at Citigroup Inc. Auction notices rose 32% from a year ago, a sign that more defaulting homeowners are "simply walking away and deeding their properties back to the foreclosing lender" rather than letting the home be auctioned, RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer James Saccacio said in the statement.
"We're not near the bottom of this at all," said Kenneth Rosen, chairman of Rosen Real Estate Securities LLC, a hedge fund in Berkeley, California and chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at the University of California at Berkeley. "The foreclosure process will accelerate throughout the year."
Rising foreclosures will add more inventory to an already glutted market, keep home prices down through at least next year and thwart efforts by Congress and President George W. Bush to help homeowners avoid default, Rosen said in an interview.
'Drag' on Prices
About 2.5 million foreclosed properties will be on the market this year and in 2009, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. analysts led by Michelle Meyer said in an April 10 report. U.S. home price declines will probably double to a national average of 20% by next year, with lower values most likely in metropolitan areas in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. said last week in a report.
Borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth may be buffeted by increasing job losses in a "very substantial recession," Rosen said. About 8.8 million borrowers had home mortgages that exceeded the value of their property, Moody's Economy.com said last week.
"At least 2 million jobs will be lost because of this recession, so we'll get a cumulative negative spiral," Rosen said. "A normal recession is 10 months. We think this one may be twice as long."
Bank seizures climbed 129% from a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac, which has a database of more than 1 million properties and monitors foreclosure filings including defaults notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. March was the 27th consecutive month of year-on-year monthly foreclosure increases. In February, foreclosure filings rose 60%.
Nevada Leads
A surge in defaults among subprime borrowers, those with poor or limited credit, spurred the collapse of the U.S. home loan market and has led more than 100 mortgage companies to stop lending, close or sell themselves. As the value of securities tied to mortgages plummeted, lenders and securities firms have reported writedowns and credit losses of at least US$245-billion since the beginning of 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Nevada had the highest U.S. foreclosure rate in March at one for every 139 households, almost four times the national rate, RealtyTrac said. Filings there increased almost 62% from a year earlier to 7,659.
California had the second-highest rate at one filing for every 204 households, and the most filings for the 15th consecutive month at 64,711. Foreclosure filings more than doubled from a year earlier and were up about 21% from February.
Florida, Ohio
Florida had the third-highest rate, one filing for every 282 households, and ranked second in total filings at 30,254. Foreclosures increased 112% from a year earlier and decreased almost 7% from February, RealtyTrac said.
Ohio ranked third in filings at 11,273 and had the seventh- highest foreclosure rate, one for every 448 households. Georgia, Texas, Michigan, Arizona, Illinois, Nevada and Colorado also ranked among the top 10 states with the most filings, RealtyTrac said.
"The continued increase in new foreclosures implies an even larger drag on prices in 2008," Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist Jan Hatzius wrote April 8. Home prices fell 8.9% in the fourth quarter, the biggest decline in 20 years as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.
Some borrowers are "hanging on at the margins" in the face of resets, said Mark Goldman, a loan officer at Windsor Capital Mortgage Corp. in San Diego.
Goldman said one of his clients is a self-employed contractor whose adjustable-rate mortgage rose by two%age points two months ago. His mortgage payment has increased to US$7,200 from US$4,900.
"I've had people sitting in my office in tears because there are no loans available," said Goldman. "There are no loans for someone who's upside down on their house."
