Financial Update For May 31, 2010

• TSX -77.68
• DOW -122.36
• Dollar -.18c to 95.06cUS
• Oil -$.58 to $73.97US per barrel.
• Gold +$.30 to $1,212.20 USD per ounce

Canada won't fall victim to foreclosure wave: Report
John Shmuel, Financial Post

Canada's housing market is expected to cool off this year and next, but isn't at risk of falling victim to a U.S.-style foreclosure crisis anytime soon, according to a new report by debt-rating firm DBRS Ltd.
DBRS said in the report that Canada will continue to fare well in comparison to its neighbour to the south when the Canadian housing market corrects itself and interest rates are tightened. That is because lending practices here are much more sound than in the U.S.
"The likelihood of us having the kind of situation they had in the U.S. is extremely low," said Jerry Marriott, managing director of structured finance at DBRS . "It's a combination of the lending practices prior to the peak in 2007 - they were more restrained, so there were better underwriting practices in Canada. We also think there are a number of factors in the Canadian market which have lent themselves to more prudent lending."
Those factors includes less aggressive lenders in the market, as well as systems designed to keep people paying their mortgages.
Mr. Marriott said that a cooling effect is gradually taking hold in the housing market as credit availability begins to tighten, and the HST factors into home buying decisions in Ontario and British Columbia.
That means there's a greater likelihood this year that there will be a correction in housing prices rather than a continued increase. Mr. Marriott said the DBRS expects the market to cool throughout the year and continue to cool into 2011. That echoes analysts expectations, who also expect prices to drop as well. A recent report by TD Bank predicts prices will fall by 2.7% in 2011.
"If you add up the factors you would look at as to whether there's going to be further price increases or the potential for a correction, we don't see there's a lot of factors supporting further price increases," Mr. Marriott said. "But there are a number of factors that show there might be some moderation in housing prices."
That may bode well for potential buyers after a report by CIBC this week said that on average, Canadian home prices are currently 14% over their "fair" value - that represents about 1.5 million homes, or 17% of all dwellings.
The report also highlights that Canadian households continue to have a particularly high level of debt, something that the DBRS notes is part of an ongoing trend. But it tempers that by adding that household debt is not as worrying as some analysts have suggested.
"We think the measurement of household leverage is subject to a fair amount of interpretation," said Mr. Marriott.
For instance, the debt-to-disposable income shows Canadians are generally more indebted than Americans - however, the report outlines that this doesn't reflect certain differences between the two countries that affect income, such as the fact that the U.S. has lower taxes but that Americans pay more money toward their health-care bills.
"At the end of 2009, Canadian households remained financially less leveraged by 10% to 45% compared with U.S. households," the report said. Overall, after adjustments, Canada had a household liabilities-to-total gross income ratio of 116.8% at the end of 2009, while the United States's ratio was 161.5%.
But Canadian household debt is growing faster. Household liabilities increased by 29.5% in Canada between 2007 and 2009. In the use, household debt grew just 5.3% during the same period.
Overall, mortgage lending in Canada reached $958.8 billion at the end of 2009. That's more than double the $414.1 billion ten years ago. When including home equity lines of credit, outstanding mortgage-related credit was more than $1 trillion.
Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgage-centre/story.html?id=3081970#ixzz0pVaLC07i
Carney's big call
Paul Vieira, Financial Post
Ottawa -- Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has had a busy time of it since taking over as the country's central banker 27 months ago, mostly tackling the financial crisis, mapping out the road to recovery and reassuring Canadians that at the end of the day the bank's extraordinary policies would work.
The one thing he has yet to do during his term, however, is raise interest rates. That might be about to change on Tuesday. If he does pull the trigger - and that is what most analysts expect - it won't be after grappling with competing forces that convey two starkly different messages about the economic outlook.
"We are at point where it is a tug of war between structural issues that are facing the eurozone and a very strong economic cyclical backdrop," says Stéfane Marion, chief economist at National Bank Financial.
Weighing on the governor are the economic data, which call out for a rate hike - as much as 50 basis points, some reckon. The data have been consistently strong and surprising to the upside. Job creation is in full swing, with a record 109,000 workers added to payrolls in April; consumers are buying up goods at a healthy pace, tax credits or not; corporate profits are rebounding to pre-recession levels; and inflation is creeping closer to the central bank's preferred 2% target. The sterling fundamentals prompted the central bank last month to ditch its conditional commitment to keep its policy rate at a record low 0.25% until July, leading traders to price in a nearly 100% chance of a rate hike on June 1.
That was until sovereign debt worries exploded in Europe, once Greece formally asked for international help days after the last Bank of Canada rate decision. That sparked an across-the-board retreat in global equity markets, down 9.3% since the beginning of May, as traders sold stocks and poured into risk-averse U.S. treasuries and other government securities on fears that another credit crunch was at hand. Mr. Carney is likely aware of this better than most, given his capital markets background from Goldman Sachs.
The most worrying sign on Mr. Carney's radar screen might be the small but steady increases in the cost of borrowing among banks, a signal European lenders are finding it tough to access cash from their peers on concern over how much Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt they hold.
In the end, the consensus is Mr. Carney is leaning toward a rate hike - a modest one, though, of 25 basis points. The thinking is, an ounce of prevention now is worth a pound of cure later.
"We can't look at things in a vacuum, because there are so many other factors besides Europe's issues" says Jonathan Basile, an economist with Credit Suisse in New York who closely watches Canadian markets. "The truth is the macroeconomic evidence is outweighing the financial risks right now."
The last time the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate was in July 2007, by 25 basis points to 4.5%. At the time, former governor David Dodge said the economy was operating above its production potential, and inflation was likely to stay above its 2% inflation target for longer than forecast.
Little did Mr. Dodge know that the U.S. subprime crisis would morph into the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, roiling markets and economies around the world. This is why Europe's recent fiscal woes have triggered a case of nerves, and might prompt Mr. Carney to rethink any rate move.
"The Bank of Canada wants to raise rates, but it doesn't have a crystal ball," CIBC World Markets said in a note to clients. "It can't be certain that the recent financial market downturn isn't going to morph into something more severe that would make a rate hike look out of place."
There's another school of thought, though, that suggests markets have overreacted to a regional problem. In this context, it is key to remember the Bank of Canada didn't expect the eurozone to contribute much to global growth, envisaging only 1.2% expansion this year and 1.6% in 2011.
"The European picture will calm down and people will realize it is not as dramatic as being played out," says Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities.
Yes, he acknowledges, the debt-ridden southern European economies have tough years ahead. But other countries, led by Germany and France, are going to capitalize on the lower euro and boost their exports to emerging economies and North America, which will help offset the drag from the so-called Club Med nations.
Besides Europe, Mr. Carney has other factors to consider.
Canada's sovereign debt levels are indeed much better than the industrialized world, as our politicians like to remind us. But the amount of debt held by households, measured as a percentage of disposable income, stood at a historical high of 146% - of which 98% is mortgage related - at the end of 2009, rating agency DBRS estimates. That would put Canadian households ahead of the United States but behind Britain on this measure. A rate hike would signal it might be time to live more modestly and refrain from too much debt-financed consumption (which helped fuel those nasty asset bubbles that central banks may want to pay more attention to in the aftermath of the subprime debacle).
Mr. Carney's other challenge is to explain why, and what's ahead. He has come off a period where he provided extraordinary guidance to markets. Don't expect similar language from the governor.
If anything, Mr. Marion warns the central bank should refrain from using the type of guidance the U.S. Federal Reserve deployed in 2004, when it signalled a period of "moderate" rate hikes were in the offing.
In retrospect, the Fed's use of the word moderate "encouraged more financial excesses," leading to the subprime bust, Mr. Marion says. "Carney doesn't have to be brusque about it. He has the luxury to start slowly, and leave his options open," from pausing should Europe deteriorate to hiking aggressively, by 50 basis points, if conditions warrant.
Mr. Carney reminded us recently that "nothing is pre-ordained" at the Bank of Canada. He's likely to drive home that point on Tuesday, rate hike or not.
Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=3084621#ixzz0pVYuP0cD

Financial Update For May 28th, 2010

• TSX +205.22 higher for a second straight session as commodity-linked stocks surged after China soothed investor worries by saying Europe was a key investment market.
• DOW +284.54 back over 10,000 to 10,259
• Dollar +1.66c to 95.24cUS as concern eased that Europe’s debt turmoil will worsen
• Oil +$3.04 to $74.55US per barrel.
• Gold -$1.50 to $1,211.90 USD per ounce