Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Financial Update

RECORD OIL PRICES FOR 2ND DAY

· TSX + 112.35-(Reuters) - A record high for oil prices drove the Toronto Stock Exchange's main index higher

· Dow + 60.41 New York markets were also boosted by oil prices and some positive earnings reports.

· Dollar stayed strong +.05c to $ $98.13US

· Oil +2.03 to $113.79 US per barrel hitting a record price for the 2nd day in a row

· Gold +3.30US to $932US

Bond Rates: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/bonds.html <http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/bonds.html>


Canada losing high-quality, high-productivity manufacturing jobs: report

By Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press

OTTAWA - Canada is losing tens of thousands of its best and most productive workers in the manufacturing slump caused by stiff foreign competition, the high dollar and the U.S. recession, says a new bank report.

The Toronto-Dominion Bank estimates Canada lost 130,000 factory jobs in 2007 and will likely lose more this year as conditions worsen for manufacturers, particularly in Ontario and Quebec.

"In short, we are losing many of the high-quality, high-productivity jobs in manufacturing, not just the jobs in low-productivity industries," writes Beata Caranci, the bank's director of forecasting.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty have often noted that Canada's strong job market has fortunately been able to replace those lost manufacturing jobs by strength in other areas of the economy.

But TD's nine-page report disputes the notion that these jobs are of the lower-end variety that would be lost to cheap-labour economies like China and India in any case, or that laid-off workers find comparable jobs elsewhere.

While many have found new jobs in the growing services sector, TD's report says on average the displaced workers wind up making about 25 per cent, or about $10,000 a year, less than what they were earning before.

The report found that 55 per cent of the 212,000 jobs lost in the sector in the past five years have been unionized, which tend to be higher paying and more productive.

"It's been an unfortunate set of circumstances. The auto sector for instance is facing a lot of global competitive pressure and slowing U.S. demand and that's been made worse by the fact we have a high Canadian dollar," said Caranci in an interview.

"Those conditions are worsening, so it's going to get worse as the year goes on," she added.

Canadian Auto Workers economist Jim Stanford said the report confirms what the union and others have been saying for years.

Stanford added that the findings should send government alarms ringing because the manufacturing slump will eventually be felt in other sectors of the economy.

"We've lost 400,000 jobs since the peak in 2002, and we'll see another 400,000 losses in the next few years if the U.S. has a recession and the dollar stays high," he said, noting that his estimate of job losses is higher than the TD Bank's.

"The reason we've had more jobs created than lost is consumer spending and construction has continued growing while the export side has been contracting, and that dichotomy can't last forever," Stanford said.

"Sooner or later as we export less, our domestic economy will slow down."

The bank report titled "Is Canada's Job Machine Unstoppable?" presents a generally positive view of Canada's labour market.

It says the economy created a whopping 379,700 net jobs in 2007, pushing the unemployment rate to a 33-year low, and the employment rate to a new record high at 63.5 per cent of the adult population.

And though the situation is reversing this year in the face of the economic slowdown, Canada is unlikely to experience the job losses occurring in the United States, it said.

Instead, Canada is expected to add between 3,000 and 5,000 new jobs a month this year, a far cry from last year's 32,000 monthly average, but still a measure of growth.

"It's not going to be 2007 again, but are we expecting job losses? No," said Caranci.

But the report noted some troubling trends.

The tight labour market last year triggered the fastest average wage growth in a decade at 3.5 per cent, but that bounty went disproportionately to employees earning above $100,000 and to those in the hot economies in western Canada.

As well, employment growth has outstripped output growth, meaning that more Canadians are working to produce proportionately less.

Canadian labour productivity actually fell a steep three per cent in the fourth quarter, limiting growth for the year to 0.5 per cent, well below the quarter-century trend of 1.4 per cent annual growth.

Caranci said the numbers may overestimate the problem. She explains that several factors could have kept productivity down, including a growth in self-employed workers whose productivity is hard to gauge, strong labour growth in the relatively less productive younger and older age groups, and the fact that many workers have been hired in oil sands mega-projects that won't start producing oil for years.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Financial Update

Oil rises to record close
U.S. foreclosures jump 57%


· TSX climbed higher + 55.57
· Dow continues downward-23.36
· Dollar bounced up +.37c to $ $98.08US
· Oil +1.62 to $111.76 US per barrel . Oil rose on Monday to a record close, bolstered by the
weaker dollar and supply disruptions ahead of the U.S. summer gasoline season.
· Gold +1.80US to $925.40US

Bond Rates: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/bonds.html

Businesses foresee slower growth in sales and investment: Bank of Canada
Mon Apr 14, 2:39 PMBy Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press

OTTAWA - The impact of tight money and the U.S. economic malaise is beginning to sap the confidence of Canadian businesses, says a new survey from the Bank of Canada.
While far from panicking over the worsening economic conditions, the 100 businesses polled in February and March suggested Canada's corporate world sees an easing trend developing in what they produce, sell and invest for the next 12 months.

"The increased pessimism about sales is unsurprising, given the heightened discussion of a possible U.S. recession that was evident over the survey period," said Rishi Sondhi, an economist with the Royal Bank.

The central bank survey released Monday dovetails with a Conference Board poll of chief executives in the United States showing American business confidence at the lowest level since late 2000, and firms saying they are scaling back on hiring.

The Bank of Canada survey found a growing number of businesses reporting that financing investment and expansion is becoming more difficult as a result of the global credit crunch, the third straight quarter that firms have reported more stringent credit.

"Reports of tighter credit conditions were widespread across sectors and regions, with most firms attributing the tightening to a market-wide repricing of risk," the central bank said Monday.

Forty-one per cent of the firms said credit conditions were tighter in the past quarter, against 17 per cent saying they were looser.

This was likely reflected in muted business investment plans, with 28 per cent of firms saying they expected to increase spending on new machinery and equipment in the next 12 months, while 27 per cent expected to spend less.

"Among firms planning to invest less, most of whom are based in Central and Eastern Canada, the most common reason cited was significant investment spending over the past year, followed by a desire to preserve cash given uncertainty about the economic outlook," the bank said.
As well, 38 per cent expect sales growth to slow this year, as opposed to 36 per cent that forecast their sales will increase at a faster pace. This is the first time a plurality of Canadian businesses have predicted slower sales growth in the bank survey since the fourth quarter of 2001, during the last U.S. recession.

And after several surveys showing demand in the economy was outpacing companies' ability to produce, the proportion of firms reporting capacity constraints fell from 60 per cent to 44 per cent, while the number of firms reporting labour shortages slipped to 30 per cent.
BMO economist Michael Gregory said the report shows tight credit conditions are plaguing the economy and the Bank of Canada will likely take action on April 22 by cutting rates another half-point.

However, RBC's Sondhi noted that firms were expecting their own output prices to increase at a faster pace over the next 12 months and that some firms expected to pass through higher input prices.

The companies said higher oil and food prices, along with the rising costs of imports from China, will contribute to increased production costs. As well, more firms believe Canada's inflation rate will exceed three per cent over the next two years.

But Sondhi agreed that the Bank of Canada appears more focused on the slowing economy than on inflationary risks, and predicted a 75-basis-point cut to the overnight rate to 2.75 per cent by midyear.

Published: Tuesday, April 15, 2008

U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 57% and bank repossessions more than doubled in March from a year earlier as adjustable mortgages increased and more owners gave up their homes to lenders.
More than 234,000 properties were in some stage of foreclosure, or one in every 538 U.S. households, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data, said today in a statement. Nevada, California and Florida had the highest foreclosure rates. Filings rose 5% from February.

About US$460-billion of adjustable-rate loans are scheduled to reset this year, according to New York-based analysts at Citigroup Inc. Auction notices rose 32% from a year ago, a sign that more defaulting homeowners are "simply walking away and deeding their properties back to the foreclosing lender" rather than letting the home be auctioned, RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer James Saccacio said in the statement.

"We're not near the bottom of this at all," said Kenneth Rosen, chairman of Rosen Real Estate Securities LLC, a hedge fund in Berkeley, California and chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at the University of California at Berkeley. "The foreclosure process will accelerate throughout the year."

Rising foreclosures will add more inventory to an already glutted market, keep home prices down through at least next year and thwart efforts by Congress and President George W. Bush to help homeowners avoid default, Rosen said in an interview.

'Drag' on Prices

About 2.5 million foreclosed properties will be on the market this year and in 2009, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. analysts led by Michelle Meyer said in an April 10 report. U.S. home price declines will probably double to a national average of 20% by next year, with lower values most likely in metropolitan areas in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. said last week in a report.

Borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth may be buffeted by increasing job losses in a "very substantial recession," Rosen said. About 8.8 million borrowers had home mortgages that exceeded the value of their property, Moody's Economy.com said last week.

"At least 2 million jobs will be lost because of this recession, so we'll get a cumulative negative spiral," Rosen said. "A normal recession is 10 months. We think this one may be twice as long."
Bank seizures climbed 129% from a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac, which has a database of more than 1 million properties and monitors foreclosure filings including defaults notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. March was the 27th consecutive month of year-on-year monthly foreclosure increases. In February, foreclosure filings rose 60%.

Nevada Leads

A surge in defaults among subprime borrowers, those with poor or limited credit, spurred the collapse of the U.S. home loan market and has led more than 100 mortgage companies to stop lending, close or sell themselves. As the value of securities tied to mortgages plummeted, lenders and securities firms have reported writedowns and credit losses of at least US$245-billion since the beginning of 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nevada had the highest U.S. foreclosure rate in March at one for every 139 households, almost four times the national rate, RealtyTrac said. Filings there increased almost 62% from a year earlier to 7,659.

California had the second-highest rate at one filing for every 204 households, and the most filings for the 15th consecutive month at 64,711. Foreclosure filings more than doubled from a year earlier and were up about 21% from February.

Florida, Ohio

Florida had the third-highest rate, one filing for every 282 households, and ranked second in total filings at 30,254. Foreclosures increased 112% from a year earlier and decreased almost 7% from February, RealtyTrac said.

Ohio ranked third in filings at 11,273 and had the seventh- highest foreclosure rate, one for every 448 households. Georgia, Texas, Michigan, Arizona, Illinois, Nevada and Colorado also ranked among the top 10 states with the most filings, RealtyTrac said.

"The continued increase in new foreclosures implies an even larger drag on prices in 2008," Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist Jan Hatzius wrote April 8. Home prices fell 8.9% in the fourth quarter, the biggest decline in 20 years as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.

Some borrowers are "hanging on at the margins" in the face of resets, said Mark Goldman, a loan officer at Windsor Capital Mortgage Corp. in San Diego.

Goldman said one of his clients is a self-employed contractor whose adjustable-rate mortgage rose by two%age points two months ago. His mortgage payment has increased to US$7,200 from US$4,900.

"I've had people sitting in my office in tears because there are no loans available," said Goldman. "There are no loans for someone who's upside down on their house."

Monday, April 14, 2008

Financial Update

The best thing about 2008 is that there is only 8 ½ months left-top investment banker, name withheld


· TSX -226.55 Canadian Press The Toronto stock market ended with a triple-digit loss
Friday as disappointing earnings from usually reliable General Electric Co. cast a shadow
over stock markets and made investors fret over the quality of upcoming quarterly
results

· Dow -256.66 Wall Street index futures were negative and overseas stock markets were
down after big U.S. bank Wachovia Corp. announced it is cutting its dividend and raising $7
billion in new capital after a first-quarter net loss of $350 million. Canadian Press

· Dollar -.44c to $ $97.71US

· Oil +$0.03 to $110.14 US per barrel demand for oil will slip in the coming months amid a
global economic downturn, but prices may remain high because of uncertainty over supply.

· Gold -$4.70 to $923.60US

Bond Rates: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/bonds.html <http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/bonds.html>


Bloomberg news Subprime Mortgages have proved to be a bigger catastrophe for captains of the insurance industry than any natural disaster. American International Group Inc cut the 2007 cash bonus for chief executive Martin Sullivan by 42% as the world’s largest insurer reported its biggest quarterly loss in 89 years. Ambac Financial Group Inc denied Robert Genader any bonus, slashed his cash compensation by 71% and then replaced him in Jan. Boards are holding CEO’s accountable for US$38 billion of subprime losses by slicing their salaries and bonuses by an average 20%. That compares with an average 8.2% increase for the CEO’s in 2005, when directors excused them for US$41.1 billion of costs from Hurricane Katrina


Housing prices inch up 0.3% in February: StatsCan


Last Updated: Friday, April 11, 2008 10:05 AM ET


CBC News <http://www.cbc.ca/news/credit.html>


New housing prices across Canada increased 0.3 per cent in February owing to rising labour and material costs, Statistics Canada reported Friday.

On a year-over-year basis, contractors' selling prices increased 6.2 per cent, down from the 6.5 per cent increase observed in February.

"The increase in new housing prices in Canada slowed in February, following two consecutive months in which the rate of growth was gaining speed," the federal agency said. "This deceleration continues the downward trend that started in September 2006."

Saskatchewan's strong housing market led the country, with builders citing the high cost of materials and a notable labour shortage, Statistics Canada said. Saskatoon recorded an annual price increase of 58.3 per cent — the city's largest recorded increase.

In monthly comparisons, new home prices in Saskatoon rose 4.3 per cent in February over January. Regina's new housing prices in February climbed seven per cent over January.

New February home prices dropped 0.9 per cent in Edmonton and 0.3 per cent in Calgary from the previous month. The federal agency said the slowing housing market is shifting.

"With some migrants leaving the province, there are many resale houses on the market, making for slower new housing sales," Statistics Canada said.

Material, labour and land development costs helped drive up new home prices in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador to record levels. St. John's recorded a year-over-year increase of 12.2 per cent while Halifax prices climbed 11.4 per cent.

New housing price increases


February 2007 - February 2008 (%)

January 2008 - February 2008 (%)


Canada

6.2

0.3


St. John's

12.2

2.9


Halifax

11.4

0


Charlottetown

2.4

0


Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton

2.1

-0.4


Quebec

4.0

0.5


Montreal

4.7

1.0


Ottawa–Gatineau

3.3

1.3


Toronto and Oshawa

4.4

0.3


Hamilton

3.6

0.8


St. Catharines–Niagara

5.3

1.9


Kitchener

2.0

-0.1


London

3.7

0


Windsor

0.3

0.3


Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay

6.3

1.2


Winnipeg

14.5

0.1


Regina

28.6

7.0


Saskatoon

58.3

4.3


Calgary

5.2

-0.3


Edmonton

14.8

-0.9


Vancouver

6.6

0.2


Victoria

1.6

0