Higher interest rates could be coming sooner, says Bank of Canada governor
• TSX -81.57 to 11,962
• DOW -52.68
• Dollar -.89c to 97.53cUS
• Oil -$1.30 to $80.61US per barrel.
• Gold -$14.90 to $1,108.60 USD per ounce
Higher interest rates could be coming sooner, says Bank of Canada governor
By Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - Canadians could be facing higher interest rates sooner than previously thought as a result of stubborn inflation and stronger economic growth, Bank of Canada Mark Carney said Wednesday.
Carney did not declare higher rates were on the way, but issued his clearest signal to date that his year-old commitment to keep the policy rate at the record 0.25 per cent until July was "expressly conditional" on inflation remaining tame.
In a speech to a business audience, the bank governor noted that both underlying core inflation and economic growth have grown slightly stronger, although broadly proceeding as expected.
The tip-off to economists was that he changed his language on his conditional commitment on interest rates, which has led to historically low rates for both consumers and businesses in Canada and helped the country recover from recession.
"This commitment is expressly conditional on the outlook for inflation," he told the Ottawa Economic Association.
It was the first time Carney has undercut the commitment in such pointed language.
Later, Carney downplayed the significance, joking with reporters that he needed to used different words to keep the media's attention.
But economists said the distinction was significant.
"They still have considerable latitude, but the changes that would be required to their forecast are consistent with hiking rates sooner than markets are anticipating," said Derek Holt, Scotiabank's vice-president of economics. He said Carney may move as early as June 1.
But Holt stressed that Carney's overall message to Canadians is that rates will remain low by historical standards for some time.
"No matter what, we emerge from this with lower rates at the end point of the hiking campaign than in past cycles. He's saying the outlook is clouded with risks and there's a number of reasons to expect growth to be lower than past cycles."
Core inflation - which excludes volatile items like energy - has been stubbornly sticky the past few months, with the index rising to 2.1 per cent in February. That's the first time it has been above the central bank's target of two per cent in more than a year.
And Carney pointed out that the economy has performed better than he thought when the bank issued its last forecast in January, predicting growth of 2.9 per cent this year. Since then, several private sector economists have increased their projections and Carney is expected to do the same at the next scheduled forecast date on April 22.
At a news conference following his speech, Carney warned against reading in too much optimism in his assessment.
"It wasn't that rosy a message," he said.
He cautioned that low U.S. demand and the high Canadian dollar, which was trading below 98 cents US on Wednesday but still high by recent standards, were acting as "significant drags" on the economy.
On a longer term basis, Carney's message to Canadians was positively dark, warning that the country needs to address its "abysmal" productivity record and that the world needs to follow through with reforms to address global imbalances, particularly China's undervalued currency.
Carney calculated that unless the country improves its productivity or output per unit of work, Canadians can expect to lose a total of $30,000 in real income over the next decade.
"Canada does underperform," he said. "We are not as productive as we could be. Our potential growth is slowing. Moreover, this is occurring as the very nature of the global economy ... is under threat."
Canada's productivity has advanced a meagre 0.7 per cent annually over the last decade, he noted, less than half the rate in the U.S. and half the rate Canada managed between 1980 and 2000.
He placed the blame on the doorstep of Canadian business, which he said needs to make much bigger investments in equipment and machinery and in information technologies.
Canadian workers have about half the information and communication technology at their disposal as their American counterparts, he said, adding that changes must be make quickly because the landscape of the global economy has shifted and it requires a "big response."
Carney also said a key to future prospects for the Canadian and global economies is adoption of the G20 framework for economic sustainability. That will require addressing global imbalances which, in part, are caused by fixed currencies like China's yuan which are kept artificially low to boost exports and discourage imports.
He produced a chart showing that unless the G20 measures are adopted, global growth will be about one percentage point lower in the next five years than it might otherwise be. The worse case scenario is a prolonged global recession that triggers protectionism, deepening the crisis. The irony, he said, is that China loses out in the long run as well.
Carney is the second Canadian policy-maker in as many days to warn about the devalued yuan. On Tuesday, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Canada will push the issue at the upcoming G20 meetings in Toronto in June. A revaluation of the yuan would likely lead to adjustments in other fixed currencies in Asia, economists said.
The U.S. has taken the lead in pressuring China on the yuan, but so far the emerging economic superpower has dismissed such calls and said it would move on its own schedule.
"An adjustment in global exchange rates is part and parcel of global rebalancing," said Carney. "What's at stake here is enormous and the adjustment of those real, effective exchange rates of all major currencies is an important component of rebalancing." http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/24032010/2/biz-finance-higher-interest-rates-coming-sooner-says-bank-canada.html
Consumer credit experts call on homebuyers to exercise caution
THE CANADIAN PRESS
TORONTO — Potential homebuyers spurred into action by fears of an imminent interest rate hike may be better off to wait and avoid bidding wars that can prove even more costly, according to consumer credit experts.
Laurie Campbell, executive director of Credit Counselling Canada, says Canadians already feeling societal pressure to be homeowners are more likely to engage in bidding wars and overspend when they hear that their ability to fulfil that “North American dream” could soon erode.
“We’re not only enticed by agents and those who market mortgages and the whole concept but ... society as a whole,” she said.
The hot housing market is being driven, in part, by an influx of consumers willing to pay a premium for home ownership before interest rates rise.
“They’re overpaying for houses because they’re all trying to get into the market before interest rates go up,” Campbell said. “Especially right now with this whole time bomb of interest rates, for sure there’s a lot of people out there thinking they better get in the market today.”
Two bank surveys released Wednesday found that potential homebuyers are feeling pressure to buy homes sooner, but are worried about their ability to pay for their homes when mortgage rates rise.
The Bank of Montreal said as many as one-third of respondents in a homebuyers survey believe their expectation that housing prices would increase, and interest rates would soar, left an impression on their decision to make a purchase in the short term.
About 15 per cent of potential homebuyers said they have been in bidding wars, and for those who had their housing bids rejected, 14 per cent believe it caused them to overspend on their next offer.
“There’s definitely a sense of urgency among home buyers,” said Lynne Kilpatrick, senior vice-president of personal banking at BMO.
“While we encourage Canadians to pursue their home ownership dreams, we recognize it’s easy to get caught up in the emotions of the purchase and this can lead to stretching one’s budget too thin.”
Meanwhile, Royal Bank’s annual home ownership survey found about 64 per cent of mortgage holders are concerned about higher rates over the next year. Almost three-quarters of homeowners, 73 per cent, felt strongly that homebuyers needed to think ahead to ensure they will still be able to make their mortgage payment if rates rise.
The bank said six in 10 mortgage holders said they had taken advantage of current low interest rates to pay more principal on their loans.
Most economists say low interest rates are behind the continued strength in the housing market and expect the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates in late spring or early summer.
The cost of servicing a mortgage fell 5.8 per cent in February as a result of record-low interest rates, but with many Canadians taking on ever larger mortgages in expensive markets across the country, higher rates could create problems for some.
BMO’s senior economist, Sal Guatieri, says that with a cooler housing market “just around the corner,” prudence may be a good choice for many new entrants. http://news.therecord.com/Business/article/688274
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Financial Update For March 24, 2010
• TSX +77.37 led by a rally in financial and mining shares that lifted the index back over the 12,000 mark.
• DOW +102.94
• Dollar +.27c to 98.42cUS
• Oil +$.31 to $81.91US per barrel.
• Gold +$4.20 to $1,103.50 USD per ounce
Canada's housing boom continues to outpace recovery in developed countries
By Sunny Freeman, The Canadian Press
TORONTO - Canada's housing boom will continue this spring as exceptionally low mortgage rates - and the expectation that borrowing costs will soon be headed higher - add a sense of urgency to consumer buying.
A Scotiabank global real estate trends report released Tuesday predicts most Canadian regions will remain sellers' markets for the first half of the year, as strong demand and rising prices continue.
"I think you're going to have a very active spring market, probably some cooling off in the second half of the year," Adrienne Warren, the Scotiabank economist who wrote the report said in a presentation Tuesday.
"We're looking at once in a lifetime interest rates that people are taking advantage of...but certainly confidence is coming back, the job markets are stabilizing," she said.
Scotiabank expects about 510,000 home sales this year, up ten per cent from 2009, but just shy of the 2007 record. Average prices are forecast to increase about eight per cent to a record $345,000, while housing starts are expected to reach 190,000, up from 149,000 last year.
The economic recovery from last year's painful recession has improved consumer confidence, although a bounceback in the jobs market is taking more time. Just over a third of the 417,000 jobs lost in the 2008-2009 recession have been replaced and the jobless rate is still at 8.2 per cent, only half a point below its high last August.
Most experts predict the rise in consumer confidence about the economy, and low interest rates, are behind the continued strength in the housing market.
Warren said the spring rush will be driven by an influx of buyers hoping to preempt tighter lending rules for mortgages and the introduction of the harmonized sales tax in Ontario and B.C. But a steady increase in the number of listings and a rise in construction are helping to restore a more balanced market.
"We're starting to see better balance, we're seeing more listings. There was a real lack of listings for the better part of last year...we're moving back into a better balanced situation," Warren said.
Warren said the hot spring market should give way to more subdued activity in the second half of the year, as higher interest rates and higher home prices erode affordability.
Economists expect the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates by between half a percentage point and a full point over several months beginning in late spring or early summer to fight inflationary pressures in the economy.
With many Canadians taking on larger and larger mortgage debt in expensive markets across the country, higher rates could create financial problems for some homeowners.
Warren added that the incentive for builders to add new houses to the market should also fade as supply increases and prices cool.
The front-loaded activity in the first half of the year will also contribute to lower sales, prices and construction in 2011, she said.
Canada's recovery continues to outpace developed countries around the world with housing prices in the fourth quarter up 19 per cent year over year. The strong performance has carried through into 2010, with sales in the first two months just slightly behind the near-record levels seen in late 2009.
Warren said that year-ago comparisons are amplified by the sharp drop in sales and prices at the end of 2008, but still represent a remarkable turnaround in a short time.
"We're not seeing a lot of evidence of speculative activity, I think you're just looking at a tight market, more buyers than sellers and people have to pay a premium in that environment,"she said.
She added that milder that usual temperatures across the country may have also put a bit of spring into a typically slow winter sales season.
Meanwhile, housing prices in countries including the U.K., Japan and the U.S. were still below year-earlier levels in the final quarter of 2009.
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/23032010/2/biz-finance-canada-s-housing-boom-continues-outpace-recovery-developed.html
• DOW +102.94
• Dollar +.27c to 98.42cUS
• Oil +$.31 to $81.91US per barrel.
• Gold +$4.20 to $1,103.50 USD per ounce
Canada's housing boom continues to outpace recovery in developed countries
By Sunny Freeman, The Canadian Press
TORONTO - Canada's housing boom will continue this spring as exceptionally low mortgage rates - and the expectation that borrowing costs will soon be headed higher - add a sense of urgency to consumer buying.
A Scotiabank global real estate trends report released Tuesday predicts most Canadian regions will remain sellers' markets for the first half of the year, as strong demand and rising prices continue.
"I think you're going to have a very active spring market, probably some cooling off in the second half of the year," Adrienne Warren, the Scotiabank economist who wrote the report said in a presentation Tuesday.
"We're looking at once in a lifetime interest rates that people are taking advantage of...but certainly confidence is coming back, the job markets are stabilizing," she said.
Scotiabank expects about 510,000 home sales this year, up ten per cent from 2009, but just shy of the 2007 record. Average prices are forecast to increase about eight per cent to a record $345,000, while housing starts are expected to reach 190,000, up from 149,000 last year.
The economic recovery from last year's painful recession has improved consumer confidence, although a bounceback in the jobs market is taking more time. Just over a third of the 417,000 jobs lost in the 2008-2009 recession have been replaced and the jobless rate is still at 8.2 per cent, only half a point below its high last August.
Most experts predict the rise in consumer confidence about the economy, and low interest rates, are behind the continued strength in the housing market.
Warren said the spring rush will be driven by an influx of buyers hoping to preempt tighter lending rules for mortgages and the introduction of the harmonized sales tax in Ontario and B.C. But a steady increase in the number of listings and a rise in construction are helping to restore a more balanced market.
"We're starting to see better balance, we're seeing more listings. There was a real lack of listings for the better part of last year...we're moving back into a better balanced situation," Warren said.
Warren said the hot spring market should give way to more subdued activity in the second half of the year, as higher interest rates and higher home prices erode affordability.
Economists expect the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates by between half a percentage point and a full point over several months beginning in late spring or early summer to fight inflationary pressures in the economy.
With many Canadians taking on larger and larger mortgage debt in expensive markets across the country, higher rates could create financial problems for some homeowners.
Warren added that the incentive for builders to add new houses to the market should also fade as supply increases and prices cool.
The front-loaded activity in the first half of the year will also contribute to lower sales, prices and construction in 2011, she said.
Canada's recovery continues to outpace developed countries around the world with housing prices in the fourth quarter up 19 per cent year over year. The strong performance has carried through into 2010, with sales in the first two months just slightly behind the near-record levels seen in late 2009.
Warren said that year-ago comparisons are amplified by the sharp drop in sales and prices at the end of 2008, but still represent a remarkable turnaround in a short time.
"We're not seeing a lot of evidence of speculative activity, I think you're just looking at a tight market, more buyers than sellers and people have to pay a premium in that environment,"she said.
She added that milder that usual temperatures across the country may have also put a bit of spring into a typically slow winter sales season.
Meanwhile, housing prices in countries including the U.K., Japan and the U.S. were still below year-earlier levels in the final quarter of 2009.
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/23032010/2/biz-finance-canada-s-housing-boom-continues-outpace-recovery-developed.html
Financial Update For March 23, 2010
• TSX +19.19 .
• DOW +43.91
• Dollar -.24c to 98.15cUS The Canadian dollar touched a one-week low against the U.S. dollar, weakened by mixed commodity prices and uncertainty about Europe's handling of Greece's debt
• Oil +$.63 to $81.60US per barrel.
• Gold -$8.10 to $1,099.50 USD per ounce
Fight over real estate fees not over
Michael Babad Globe and Mail
The fight over the Multiple Listing Service run by Canada's realtors isn't over yet. The Canadian Real Estate Association said today it approved changes that would give home buyers and sellers more power over their transactions on MLS. Under the change, a consumer will now be able to pay an agent a flat fee to list on the service, where about nine out of 10 of all deals are done. Agents must now pass along a seller's home phone number, if that's what the seller wants, to a potential buyer if asked. The association said in a statement that it believes it has now addressed the issues raised by the Competition Bureau, which has taken the issue to the Competition Tribunal.
But the Competition Bureau immediately responded that it plans to continue to challenge the “anti-competitive rules that deny consumer choice and stifle competition” despite the CREA changes.
“There is nothing in these proposals that we haven't seen before and they do not solve the problem,” Melanie Aitken, the Commissioner of Competition, said in a statement. “They are a step in the wrong direction. These amendments amount to a blank cheque allowing CREA and its members to create rules that could have even greater anti-competitive consequences.”
The bureau said CREA's amendments do not remove “existing roadblocks to real estate agents who list properties on the MLS from offering innovative services and pricing options to consumers.”
• DOW +43.91
• Dollar -.24c to 98.15cUS The Canadian dollar touched a one-week low against the U.S. dollar, weakened by mixed commodity prices and uncertainty about Europe's handling of Greece's debt
• Oil +$.63 to $81.60US per barrel.
• Gold -$8.10 to $1,099.50 USD per ounce
Fight over real estate fees not over
Michael Babad Globe and Mail
The fight over the Multiple Listing Service run by Canada's realtors isn't over yet. The Canadian Real Estate
But the Competition Bureau immediately responded that it plans to continue to challenge the “anti-competitive rules that deny consumer choice and stifle competition” despite the CREA changes.
“There is nothing in these proposals that we haven't seen before and they do not solve the problem,” Melanie Aitken, the Commissioner of Competition, said in a statement. “They are a step in the wrong direction. These amendments amount to a blank cheque allowing CREA and its members to create rules that could have even greater anti-competitive consequences.”
The bureau said CREA's amendments do not remove “existing roadblocks to real estate agents who list properties on the MLS from offering innovative services and pricing options to consumers.”
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